Iran, Saber Rattling And The Repurcussions

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The Persian gulf is at a flashpoint. It is confirmed that Iran is going ahead with its research and development of a nuclear device. Perhaps in afew months the Iranians may have a nuclear device and with it they could black mail the USA and Israel. The west and Israel are worried as they feel Iran is an unstable country and led by fanatic Aytollah’s can do anything.  Iran is indeed unstable where a puritan atmosphere prevails laced with executions and imprisonments at the drop of a hat.Thus the USA and the west are gearing up for a confrontation with Iran.

The crucial focus point is the strait of Hormuz that stands at the mouth of the Persian gulf. At its narrowest it is only about 18 miles wide, but 20-30 tankers laden with oil cross it every day. Iran is looking to close this strait and choke the supply of oil to the world. For this the Irananian navy has carried out an exercise in the straits with their submarines and motor torpedo boats. The US has an aircraft carrier task force in the area.

Iran is however unperturbed about the carrier task force and has been rattling the saber.  The West has now reacted with trade and material sanctions. The fact is that in another 2 months time the economic embargo enforced on Iran will start to sting and then anything can be  expected. It should not be forgotton that it was the oil embargo on Japan by the USA that forced the Japanese hand and attack on Pearl Harbor. Iran could also do something similar, onc eit is boxed in by the sanctions.

But the comparison with Japan is odious as Japan was greater military power, with blue water navy and a fleet of aircraft carriers as well as the largest battleship in the world the Yamato. In contrast Iran does not have much of a navy and its 3 K class Russian submarines and motor torpedo boats may not be able to do much. They could  ofcourse block the strait of Hormuz. But that will be a blunder and the Iranian leadership must realize that facing the power of the USA is something quite different from taking hostages as they did in 1978.

The Iranian leadership by their saber rattling are inviting a confrontation that can have only one end result. A defeat for Iran and perhaps a change of regime there. The so called ‘great Satan’ the USA can deliver a killer punch and Iran may regret its saber rattling later. the Iranian leadership has not realized that their forces are simply inadequate to further the Iranian agenda. The end result may be shooting its own foot.

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