Global wheat prices for the agricultural futures to find a breakthrough, since mid-June, the domestic futures market, maize, wheat futures on the start of the rally, soybean oil futures also rose in July to join the army
Global wheat is at a crossroads, this wave of rising agricultural futures can continue it? Market participants believe that, soybean oil, corn season in demand, the price is difficult or easy to rise, but whether the need to maintain a rapid increase see the trend of wheat.
Wheat: become a benchmark
Wheat futures at the Chicago Board of Trade, led by the domestic futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange ale has exceeded 2,490 yuan per ton, reaching a record high price. However, record high, the ale futures into the high order stage.
“Ales callback futures prices little room.” COFCO Futures analyst Hu Xiang told the “International Finance News” reporter “in the regulation of Grain prices in July shot repeatedly, domestic wheat throwing four storage, temporary storage of import twice the selling of wheat. but do not throw storage volume. In addition, the minimum purchase price of wheat this year as 0.93 yuan or 1,860 yuan per ton, which is already a market bottom, so ale is not to fall. “
The new P. E Lake futures analyst pointed out that currently, wheat futures have become the benchmark agricultural futures, wheat futures investors have to pay close attention to the trend.
Hu Xiang said: “ale wheat prices are mainly in line with international prices, the current funding from various quarters are waiting for the Russian grain export policy, if the immediate implementation of the Russian ban on grain exports, international wheat prices are expected there on impulse space, and the domestic ale futures will follow the ascent. “
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said the grain export ban may be due in December 31 after a prolonged decline for this year’s grain harvest may exceed expectations, adding that the Russian Ministry of Agriculture’s latest forecast of the cereal production for the 60 million tons. Agricultural analysts SovEcon expected, the Russian wheat export ban may be extended until 2011. SovEcon expects Russia 2010/2011 annual wheat exports may be about 300 million tons.
In addition, the world’s sixth largest wheat exporter, Ukraine cut production and exports in 2009/2010 estimates, Ukraine, the Ministry of Agriculture officials said that Ukraine’s wheat crop year (net) may decrease from the previous year’s 20.9 million tons to 17 million tons .
Soybean Oil: Speculators favor
Impact of the international market explosion in wheat futures, the recent international market was significantly higher vegetable oil prices. August 10, soybean oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange prices reached a new high of 23 months, 1105 contract reached an intraday 8,296 yuan per ton.
Crisis in Olympic Games said: “signs of soybean oil by speculative funds to promote the obvious.” August 10, 1105 soybean oil futures up to 1.96 million contracts traded hands, a record high, while the positions for the 480 000 hand, also hovering near record highs.
CICC report said the grain and oil products have low elasticity of demand, demand is affected by the economic slowdown will not be too obvious, it is easier to make money as a value to agricultural depressions excavated.
Hongyuan Zhang Lei futures analyst pointed out to reporters: “into the August soybean oil demand picking up.”
To meet the Double the arrival of the oil market traders have started to replenishment. With the arrival of autumn, the weather becoming cooler, the institution school, buying and selling grain and oil market revival, demand has picked up. Expected to post strong oil prices will shock.
However, Zhang Lei pointed out that although the social soybean oil stocks declined, while demand pick up enough to support substantial increase in soybean oil. Soybean oil futures for the next pass in the Office 8500 yuan per ton, due to caution investors.
Corn: was thrown reservoir pressure
August 10, Anhui Grain Wholesale Market and at the national interim storage networking market (including the Central Reserve) auction sales of corn Fair, plans to sell this temporary storage of corn 1,002,300 tons, the actual turnover 880.9 thousand tons, turnover rate 87.88% , average transaction price 1676 yuan / ton. Reserve acts to suppress the day throwing Dalian Commodity Exchange Corn futures prices.
“From the closing price and trading volume, the market demand is quite good.” Mid-term futures analyst with Shanghai Xiao-Yun Yang said.
From the market cycle point of view, 8 September corn prices have been at historically high levels, stale almost sold out, lean into the point of market supply, and therefore will be eight in September seasonal high corn prices. Price reluctant sellers, traders began to quite, of gradually higher prices.
Xiao-Yun Yang pointed out that although the overall agricultural futures up badly, but higher corn futures are facing greater pressures.
China this year have been from the world’s largest corn-producing countries the United States imported about 120 million metric tons of corn, while a few years ago China’s imports from all countries, less than 100,000 tons of corn.
Yang Xiaoyun said: “The 2010 total of 7.2 million tons of corn import quotas, imports of corn from the beginning in June has been gradually to the shore, the message will be pressure on the price though, but the market has basically digested.” She expects a breakthrough in Dalian corn futures of 2,000 yuan per ton less likely, “that with a lot of pressure, once the breakthrough, the state may introduce more policies to suppress the price.”