The Earthquake Predictions

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However, for well-understood faults seismic hazard assessment maps can estimate the probability that an earthquake of a given size will affect a given location over a certain number of years. The overall ability to predict earthquakes either on an individual basis or on a statistical basis remains remote.

Once an earthquake has already begun, early warning devices can provide a few seconds’ warning before major shaking arrives at a given location. This technology takes advantage of the different speeds of propagation of the various types of vibrations produced. Aftershocks are also likely after a major quake, and are commonly planned for in earthquake disaster response protocols.

Experts do advise general earthquake preparedness, especially in areas known to experience frequent or large quakes, to prevent injury, death, and property damage if a quake occurs with or without warning.

Prediction techniques:-

In the effort to predict earthquakes people have tried to associate an impending earthquake with such varied phenomena as seismicity patterns, electromagnetic fields (seismo-electromagnetics), ground movement, weather conditions and unusual clouds, radon or hydrogen gas content of soil or ground water, water level in wells, animal behavior, and the phases of the moon.

Many pseudoscientific theories and predictions are made, which scientific practitioners find problematic. The natural randomness of earthquakes and frequent activity in certain areas can be used to make “predictions” which may generate unwarranted credibility. These generally leave certain details unspecified, increasing the probability that the vague prediction criteria will be met, and ignore quakes that were not predicted. Rudolf Falb’s “lunisolar flood theory” is a typical example from the late 19th century.

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