When will the swine flu (H1N1) mutate? And what will happen then?

>H1N1 is currently endemic in both human and pig populations. A variant of H1N1 was responsible for the Spanish flu pandemic that killed some 50 million to 100 million people worldwide over about a year in 1918 and 1919. Another variant was named a pandemic threat in the 2009 swine flu outbreak. >

“When he compared the 1918 virus with today’s human flu viruses, Dr. Taubenberger noticed that it had alterations in just 25 to 30 of the virus’s 4,400 amino acids. Those few changes turned a bird virus into a killer that could spread from person to person

H5N1is the world’s major influenza pandemic threat. ( from Wikipedia.)

And now it seems that H1N1 is the world’s major influenza pandemic threat.

For H5N1 is known that it can be spread from birds to humans, and not between humans. The lethality of bird flu in humans is over 50%, which means that swine flu is very deadly. H5N1 is difficult to be transferred to humans, but in the last 11 years, around 400 people were infected and more than 200 deceased. The best most efficent cure is Tamiflu and Oseltamivir (Relenza). The same cures are being used in treatment for swine flu (H1N1).

As of 26 June 2009 07:00 GMT, there are over 60.000 infected and about 290 deceased people around the world. Compared to the bird flu this is much, much lower lethality. And nobody mentioned that ordinary, seasonal influenza infects around 500.000.000 people around the world every year, and kills thousands… When you consider it like that, the “ordinary” flu, most often H3N2 sounds more dangerous than swine flu… But still there is much panic about it…

But what would happen if someone who catches swine flu cathes the bird flu too? Nobody knows. For now, some of the countries which have reporteed both swine flu and bird flu this year are Egypt, China, and some other SE Asian countries.

H1N1 has mild symptoms and almost none consequences and it’s lethality rate is below 1%. Spreads easily between humans.

H5N1 has severe consequences, it’s hardly transmitable to humans, and the lethality rate is over 50%.

The question is, is there a possibility that these 2 viruses mix, and create a disease that has over 50% lethality, and would be easily transmitted between humans? That sounds like a BIG threat to mankind.

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